The Surge Is Working, The Surge Is Not
Some chicken-hawks are already claiming that the "surge" is working.
Chicken-hawks proclaim that even though United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon was nearly killed alongside the Iraqi Prime Minister the other day, and even though the deputy Prime Minister was nearly assassinated the following day that the surge is indeed working. Okaaay...
So violence in Baghdad is slightly down. Violence outside of Baghdad is reportedly up. So why is violence in Baghdad slightly down?
Well, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki has a somewhat shady alliance with Shia cleric Muqtada al Sadr who has a lot of control over the Mahdi Army who slipped into hiding when they were tipped off that a security crackdown was about to begin.
How is that any kind of victory? They'll be back. They are just laying low, making it more difficult to track them down. It certainly doesn't indicate the "surge" is working, it indicates that the Shia militants are being more clever than their Sunni enemies. In other words, they lay low, let the US kill the Sunni insurgents, and it saves Mahdi Army a lot of trouble.
But what happens the minute the "surge" ends? Mahdi Army is on the streets again, only this time without the pestilence of many of the Sunni insurgents who by that time may be partially deposed, paving the way to a Shia dominated insurgency to go right along with the Shia dominated government. Which will only add to Sunni animosity and fears of ethnic cleansing.
So I don't really see how the "surge" is working yet, especially when all I am hearing about it the capturing and killing of Sunni insurgents but nill on the capturing and killing of Shia insurgents, when, isn't is supposed to be the Shia who are being funded by Iran ... But oh well, who cares, it's not like were trying to win this war or anything.